JAPAN
A new study by San Diego State University Graduate School of Public Health Associate Research Professor John W. Ayers suggests heat-not-burn devices are poised for explosive growth.
Ayers and his research team looked at Google search trends to understand the devices’ appeal in Japan, the first country with nationwide availability, focusing on internet searches for heat-not-burn tobacco, including generic terms and major brands, analyzing their relative popularity to all searches from 2015 through August 2017. Then, they compared the fraction of all Google queries for heat-not-burn tobacco in Japan to the fraction of all Google queries for e-cigarettes in the US.
Study results showed that the total number of heat-not-burn queries in Japan grew by 1,426% their first year on the market in 2015. The number of queries grew by 2,956% between 2015 and 2017. Projections based on forecasts from the observed trends suggest that heat-not-burn queries will continue to grow at a similar rate through 2018.
Mark Dredze, professor of computer science at Johns Hopkins University and a study co-author, said, “Heat-not-burn products have quickly become insanely popular. Two years ago, there were essentially no queries in Japan for heat-not-burn tobacco, but now there are between 5.9 and 7.5 million each month.”
The team also found that interest in heat-not-burn tobacco in Japan is growing more rapidly than past interest in e-cigarettes when they were first introduced to market. This suggests that as heat-not-burn tobacco is introduced in new markets, its popularity may even eclipse e-cigarettes.
According to Ayers, millions are seeking out heat-not-burn tobacco in Japan each month and demand is poised to surge across the globe as products are introduced into new markets. He also said that it is not clear if searches translate into actual demand, but the team’s previous studies of e-cigarettes first predicted the eventual rise of actual vaping rates. Ayers pointed out that it is incumbent that tobacco control leaders appreciate the potential demand for new products like these and respond proactively.“
Tobacco control is at a new crossroads,” he said. “Leaders can reasonably respond to these new data and ready themselves by setting an agenda or wait for big tobacco to set the heat-not-burn agenda for them.”